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塑料2019:行情波動區間收窄,市場賺錢難度加大!

發布日期:2019-12-31 16:13:13 來源:我的塑料網

一、本月國內PE市場簡述

7m篮球直播 BENYUEJUYIXISHICHANGRUOSHIZOUDIE,BUFENZOUDIE200-400YUAN/DUN。JIEZHIYUEDI,GUONEILLDPEZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7250-8050YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEZHANG50-300YUAN/DUN;LDPEZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7500--8700YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIE50-300YUAN/DUN;HDPEMOZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7400-7700YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIE300-400YUAN/DUN。YUENEIQIHUOSUIYOUXIAOFUFANDAN,DANZHENGTICHENGRUOSHIJUMIAN,DUIYUSHICHANGZHENGXIANGZHIYINZUOYONGBUQIANG。SHIHUACHUGEBIEHUOSHAOZIYUANTINGJIAWAI,BUFENCHIXUXIADIAOCHUCHANGJIAGE,SHICHANGCHENGBENZHICHENGYOUSUOJIANRUO。SHANGJIAKANDIEYUQIJIAONONG,YUENEIDUOXIAOFUGENDIEBAOPAN,SHICHANGJIAGEDUOSHUZOUDI。XIAYOUGONGCHANGQIANQIDUOWEICHIGANGXUNAHUO,YUEMOYUANDANJIAQILINJIN,BUFENYEZHEFENGDICAIGOU,SHICHANGJIAOTOUQIFENYOUSUOHAOZHUAN,SHICHANGZHENGTICHENGJIAOSHANGKE。YUENEISHIHUAKUCUNDUOWEICHIZAIZHONGWEISHUIPING,DUIYUSHICHANGJIAGEYOUYIDINGDEZHICHIZUOYONG。DANLIHAOBUQIANG,SHICHANGJIAGEDUOSHUSONGDONG。

二、國內PE成交價格走勢分析?

JIEZHIYUEDI,GUONEILLDPEZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7250-8050YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEZHANG50-300YUAN/DUN;LDPEZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7500--8700YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIE50-300YUAN/DUN;HDPEMOZHULIUSHICHANGJIAGEZAI7400-7700YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIE300-400YUAN/DUN。

三、國內PE出廠價格對比

單位:元/

產品類別

銷售公司

牌號

生產企業

1129

1231

漲跌幅

備注

HDPE

中油華北

7750M

撫順石化

7250

7250

0

定價

中油華南

6097

大慶石化

7800

7400

-400

定價

中石化華北

L501

燕山石化

7700

7600

-100

定價

LDPE

中油華北

18D

大慶石化

8000

7900

-100

定價

中油華東

18D

大慶石化

7900

7850

-50

定價

中石化華南

1C7A

燕山石化

7850

8000

+150

定價

LLDPE

中油華北

7042

大慶石化

7350

7350

0

定價

中油華南

7042N

撫順石化

7450

7350

-100

定價

中石化華南

7042

廣州石化

7600

7600

0

定價

中石化華東

7042

揚子石化

7450

7350

-100

定價


四、本月裝置檢修統計?

石化名稱

生產裝置

產能

安排計劃

錦乙烯

老低壓一線/二線

15

2014612日檢修至今

蘭州石化

老全密度裝置

6

2013518日檢修至今

燕山石化

高壓三線

6

1223日停車檢修,開車時間待定

神華寧煤

全密度

45

1224日停車檢修,1228日開車

上海金菲

HDPE

13.5

1225日停車檢修,預計17日開車

中原石化

全密度

26

1226日停車檢修,預計1231日開車

神華新疆

高壓

27

1229日停車檢修,預計11日開車

五、本月期貨行情綜述

BENYUEDASHANGLIANSUZHULIHEYUE2005YUECHUKAIPANBAO72400YUAN/DUN,12YUE31RISHOUPANBAO7310YUAN/DUN,ZUIGAOBAO7445YUAN/DUN,ZUIDIZHI7165YUAN/DUN,YUEZHANG60YUAN/DUNHUO0.83%。CHENGJIAOLIANGZHI893.9WANSHOUZUOYOU,CHICANGLIANGZHI73.2WANSHOU。BENYUESULIAOQIHUOCHENGZHENDANGSHANGZHANGQUSHI,JISHUSHANG,L2005HEYUEKXIANSHOUXIAOYINXIAN,CONGRIXIANLAIKANSHANGFANGWURIXIANYUSHIRIJUNXIANXIAOFUZHENDANGSHANGZHANG,KDJZHIBIAOCHENGGAOWEIZHENDANGHUILUOQUSHI,MACDZHIBIAOHONGZHUYOUSUOXIAJIANG;CONGZHOUXIANCHU5RIXIANXIAOFUSHANGZHANGWAIQITAJUNXIANYANXURUOSHIYUNXING,ZHOUXIANMACDZHIBIAOHONGZHUGAOWEIZHENGLI,ZHONGZHOUXIANXIAFANGDIFFYUDEAXIANJIXUZHENDANGZOUGAO,JUNHENGLAIKAN,JISHUMIANSHANGZHICHENGYIBAN。LIANSUDUANQIHUOWEICHIZAI7200-7400QUJIANZHENDANG,YUJIXIAYUEJIXUWEICHIZHENGLIWEIZHU。

六、本月國際PE簡述?

12YUEGUONEIPEMEIJINSHICHANGZHENGTIBIAOXIANDIMI,XIAYOUFENGDICAIGOUWEIZHU,MALAIXIYAPengerangDEJUYIXIZHUANGZHIRENGZAISHIYUNXINGJIEDUAN,ELUOSIXIBUERJUTINGWENYOU2.5WANDUNDIYAZHUSUFUPAILIAOYIJINGDAOGANG,QIZHENGPAILIAOJIANGHUIYANCHIZHINONGLIXINNIANHOU。GUONEIMEIJINBAOJIAFANGMIAN:YOUHUANANMAOYISHANG1YUECHUANQITAISUDIYAMOLIAOBAOJIA925MEIJIN/DUN,1YUECHUANQI;HUABEIMAOYISHANGSHATEXIANXINGBAOJIA855MEIJIN/DUN,1YUECHUANQI;HUADONGMAOYISHANGKATAERGAOYABAOJIA930MEIJIN/DUN,1YUECHUANQI。

七、上下游分析

1、原油及乙烯單體走勢分析

7m篮球直播 12YUE,GUOJIYUANYOUQIHUOJIAGEZHENGTISHANGXING,SHENGZHI9YUEZHONGXUNSHATEYOUTIANSHOUXISHIJIANYILAIDEZUIGAOWEI,YUEJUNJIAHUANBIYANXUZHANGSHI。YUECHU,SHOUOPEC+DAHUIZHAOKAIQIANCHANYOUGUOTAOLUNKUODAJIANCHANGUIMOJIYANCHANGJIANCHANQIXIANDESHICHANGLEGUANXIAOXITIZHEN,YIJIEIAZHOUBAOLIHAOSHUJUCIJI,YOUJIAXUNSUFANDANBINGCHIXUZOUGAO。ZHI13RI,ZHONGMEILIANGGUOYUDANGTIANJIUDIYIJIEDUANJINGMAOXIEYIWENBENDACHENGYIZHI,CONGERXIANGSHICHANGSHIFANGLEGENGDUODEMAOYILEGUANFENWEI,JIASHANGTONGRIBAOLISI·YUEHANXUNLVLINGBAOSHOUDANGZAIYINGGUODAXUANZHONGYIJUEDUIDUOSHUYIXIYINGDEXUANJUBINGZHENGSHIJIURENYINGGUOSHOUXIANG,YELINGSHICHANGDUIYINGGUOTUOOUJINCHENGDEDANYOUQINGXUYIDUJIANGZHIDIWEI,CONGERTIZHENYOUJIAZAIDUZHENDANGZOUGAO。BUGUO,YOUYU20RIDANGTIAN,YINGGUOXIAYIYUANTOUPIAOTONGGUOLEYUEHANXUNZHENGFUDETUOOUXIEYIFAAN,CONGERSHIBUFENTOUZIZHEDUIYINGGUOTUOOUQIANJINGDEDANYOUQINGXUZAIDUSHENGWEN,DAOZHIYOUJIASHOUPANYIDUHUILUO。JINRUXIAXUNHOU,YINSHOUDAOXIFANGSHENGDANJIEJIAQIYINGXIANG,GUOJIYUANYOUQIHUOSHICHANGJIAOTOUCHIXUQINGDAN。BUGUO,YINQIJIANMEIGUSHUAXINLISHIGAOWEIWEIYOUJIATIGONGDAIDONGZUOYONG,JIASHANGSHOUDAOBUFENSHICHANGRENSHIDUIZHONGMEIMAOYIDELEGUANYUQIHEEIALIHAOZHOUBAOSHUJUTIZHENYINGXIANG,YOUJIAWEICHIWENHESHANGZHANGSHITOU,ZHANGZHI9YUEZHONGXUNSHATEYOUTIANSHOUXISHIJIANYILAIDEZUIGAOWEI。

2PE下游農膜開工分析

BENYUEXIAYOUPEPENGMOXUQIUJINYIBUJIANRUO,QIYEDINGDANGENJINBUZU,BUFENCHANGJIAXIADIAOCHANPINJIAGE,DANZHENGTISHANGPENGMOJIAGEBIANHUABUDA。MUQIANDIMOXUQIULUXUGENJIN,CHANGJIADIMOBAOJIAJIBENWENDING。 JIEZHIDAOYUEMOSHANDONGDIQUSHUANGFANGMOZHULIUJIAGEZAI9300-9600YUAN/DUN。HUADONGDIQUSHUANGFANGMOZHULIUJIAGEZAI9400-9700YUAN/DUN。HUANANDIQUSHUANGFANGMOZHULIUJIAGEZAI 9300-9600 YUAN/DUN。SHANDONGDIQUDIMOZHULIUJIA8000-8300YUAN/DUN。

八、進出口

7m篮球直播 2019NIAN11YUEFENPECHUKOUZONGLIANG2.59WANDUN。QIZHONGLDPECHUKOULIANG0.73WANDUN,CHUKOULIANGJIAOSHANGYUEHUANBIJIANSHAO14.12%;HDPECHUKOULIANGWEI1.53WANDUN,CHUKOULIANGJIAOSHANGYUEHUANBIJIANSHAO6.13%;LLDPECHUKOULIANGWEI0.33DUN,CHUKOULIANGJIAOSHANGYUEJIANSHAO17.5%。

九、后市預測

我的塑料網(cqlhzj.com)觀點:預計下月國內PE市場價格震蕩整理。LLDPE主流市場價格在7200-8000/噸,LDPE主流市場價格在7500-8700/噸,HDPE膜主流市場價格在7400-7700/噸。

利多因素:石化出廠價格多數持穩,市場成本支撐力度尚可;神華新疆、中原石化等部分裝置處于檢修中,部分貨源供應有所縮減,短期利好于周邊市場;節前節后部分工廠入市備貨,場內剛需猶存;國際油價持續走高,市場貨源成本支撐增強。

利空因素:7m篮球直播線性期貨震蕩走跌,打壓業者信心;下月起下游工廠逐步停工退市,對于原料的需求減弱;石化假期慣性累庫,場內貨源供應壓力增強;環保督查力度不減,終端企業生產受阻。

其他因素:7m篮球直播期貨及原油走勢變化。

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